Summary
An International Institute for Strategic Studies report (released Jul 2, 2026) documents hundreds of Russian drone incursions across the airspace of a dozen nato member states plus Ireland between August 2024 and February 2026, describing a deliberate campaign to probe allied vulnerabilities and test military-civilian decision-making. Ramstein Air Base (Germany) and Volkel Air Base (Netherlands) — both tied to NATO’s nuclear-sharing/deterrence mission — were repeatedly surveilled, with Volkel (host of dual-capable aircraft carrying US B61-12 gravity bombs) hit on at least three separate days in Nov–Dec 2025, including one incident with up to ten drones directly overhead that evaded ground-fire. Drones, likely launched from Russia-linked “shadow fleet” vessels in the North Sea/Baltic, crossed European airspace “with substantial impunity.” In September, NATO fighters shot down a drone swarm headed toward Poland — the first instance of NATO aircraft firing on a threat in allied airspace. The report faults inconsistent European responses (nato Secretary-General mark-rutte confirmed no blanket shoot-down policy) and air-defense systems built for conventional threats, and calls for clearer legal authority to counter deniable, below-threshold drone incursions.
Key Claims
- Hundreds of Russian drones operated across a dozen NATO states and Ireland, Aug 2024–Feb 2026, per the IISS report.
- Ramstein Air Base (Nov 2024–early 2025) and Volkel Air Base (Nov–Dec 2025, 3+ days) — both nuclear-mission-linked — were specifically surveilled.
- Volkel hosts dual-capable aircraft carrying US forward-deployed B61-12 gravity bombs under NATO’s nuclear-sharing arrangement.
- Drones likely launched from Russia-linked “shadow fleet” vessels in the North Sea/Baltic Sea (attributed by IISS; Russia denies involvement, including in Denmark/Norway incursions).
- NATO fighters shot down a drone swarm bound for Poland in September — first NATO air-to-air engagement of a threat in allied airspace.
- NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte: no blanket policy to shoot down all drones; decisions made case-by-case.
- IISS: European air defenses were built for conventional threats, not “repeated, low-cost and deniable incursions” designed to expose detection/legal gaps below the threshold of collective response.
- Report calls for clearer legal frameworks authorizing advanced military assets against drones of uncertain origin.
Notable Quotes
“Volkel is a highly sensitive site because it hosts dual-capable aircraft tasked with delivering US forward-deployed B61-12 gravity bombs under NATO’s nuclear-sharing arrangements” — IISS report
“with substantial impunity across European airspace — representing both a series of tactical successes for the Kremlin and a strategic failure of allied air defense” — IISS report
“The path to a credible European response requires legal clarity” — IISS report