Summary
michael-shermer, founder and editor of Skeptic magazine, argues in a January 2026 Washington Post opinion piece that the vast majority of UAP sightings resolve to ordinary or extraordinary terrestrial explanations. He organizes UAP into three categories — ordinary terrestrial phenomena, extraordinary terrestrial/adversary technology, and genuinely anomalous or extraterrestrial — and contends the first two categories account for 90–95% of all reports. Writing against a backdrop of the Trump administration’s 2026 UAP file releases and growing public credulity, Shermer invokes anecdotes from astronaut Scott Kelly and the physical barrier of interstellar distances to argue against the extraterrestrial hypothesis. Ironically, Shermer was subsequently appointed to the White House/AARO/ODNI-tasked uap-science-advisory-council in June 2026 (see src-shermer-uap-science-council-2026-06).
Key Claims
- UAP reports fall into three categories: (1) ordinary terrestrial phenomena — weather balloons, drones, aircraft, atmospheric effects; (2) extraordinary terrestrial — advanced foreign adversary technology; (3) genuinely anomalous/extraterrestrial. (Shermer)
- Historically 90–95% of UFO reports are explained as prosaic phenomena. (Shermer)
- UAP evidence consists of “grainy photographs, blurry videos and stories” insufficient to support the extraterrestrial hypothesis. (Shermer)
- Even highly trained observers misidentify phenomena — astronaut Scott Kelly’s co-pilot once flagged an object that turned out to be a Bart Simpson balloon. (Shermer, citing Kelly)
- The “staggering distances between stars” constitute a physical barrier to extraterrestrial visitation. (Shermer)
Notable Quotes
“I have been following and writing about UFO phenomena and the people who believe they represent alien visitation since the 1990s, and until recently the topic was always largely treated by the public and media as fringe and beneath serious consideration.” — Michael Shermer